{"id":133879,"date":"2020-02-20T12:45:50","date_gmt":"2020-04-21T03:26:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.05921.net\/index.php\/133879\/"},"modified":"2020-04-21T11:26:55","modified_gmt":"2020-04-21T03:26:55","slug":"f0c5f2b10b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.05921.net\/index.php\/133879\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5f7b\u5e95\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u50cf\u6d41\u611f\u4e00\u6837\u53cd\u590d\u7206\u53d1\uff1f\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Scripps Research \u7684\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u5bb6 Michael Farzan \u4e8e 2005 \u5e74\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e86\u4e00\u9879 SARS \u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u86cb\u767d\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0 SARS \u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u523a\u7a81\u86cb\u767d\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8de8\u7269\u79cd\u611f\u67d3\u548c\u4eba\u9645\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u4f46\u662f SARS \u75c5\u6bd2\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u5b50\u6821\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53ef\u964d\u4f4e\u75c5\u6bd2\u590d\u5236\u7684\u53d8\u5f02\u6982\u7387\u3002\u800c\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u5728\u57fa\u56e0\u5e8f\u5217\u4e0a\u4e0e SARS \u6709\u7740 70% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u53d8\u5f02\u6982\u7387\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6d41\u611f\u6216\u827e\u6ecb\u75c5\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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 <\/span><\/section>\n
2. \u75c5\u6bd2\u6bd2\u529b\u4e0e\u673a\u4f53\u514d\u75ab\u53cd\u5e94<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u867d\u7136\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\u5e8f\u5217\u4e0e SARS \u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u9ad8\u4e8e 70%\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ece\u76ee\u524d\u536b\u5065\u59d4\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u4f8b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u75c5\u6b7b\u7387\u4e3a 2% \u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e SARS \u548c MERS \u7684\u75c5\u6b7b\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e0d\u540c\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u6bd2\u6027\u3001\u75be\u75c5\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u75c7\u72b6\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u514d\u75ab\u7cfb\u7edf\u5728\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u75c5\u6bd2\u65f6\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u673a\u5236\u6216\u8bb8\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u67d0\u79cd\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6839\u636e\u4e2d\u56fd\u533b\u5b66\u79d1\u5b66\u9662 1 \u6708 31 \u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\uff0c\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u6bd2\u529b\u8d8a\u5f3a\uff0c\u8d8a\u53d1\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u514d\u75ab\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bc6\u522b\u3002\u800c\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\uff0c\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e SARS \u548c MERS \u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5176\u6bd2\u529b\u548c\u81f4\u75c5\u6027\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5f31\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5373\u4f7f\u75c5\u6bd2\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u4e8e\u7a81\u53d8\u4ea7\u751f\u9ad8\u6bd2\u529b\u548c\u9ad8\u81f4\u75c5\u6027\u7684\u53d8\u5f02\u75c5\u6bd2\u9897\u7c92\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e00\u65e6\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u673a\u4f53\u4e5f\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u514d\u75ab\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece\u8f83\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u7a97\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5177\u6709\u4f20\u64ad\u529b\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u6bd2\u529b\u548c\u81f4\u75c5\u6027\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f31\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u52a0\u5f3a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728 2 \u6708 10 \u65e5\u7684\u6e56\u5317\u7701\u75ab\u60c5\u9632\u63a7\u5de5\u4f5c\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b66\u6c49\u5e02\u91d1\u94f6\u6f6d\u533b\u9662\u9662\u957f\u5f20\u5b9a\u5b87\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u91d1\u94f6\u6f6d\u533b\u9662\u51fa\u9662\u7684\u60a3\u8005\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5371\u91cd\u75c7\u60a3\u8005\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u590d\u53d1\u6216\u8005\u518d\u6b21\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u75c5\u4f8b\u3002<\/span>\u6240\u6709\u60a3\u8005\u51fa\u9662\u6cbb\u6108\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u4f53\u5185\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6297\u4f53\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u6297\u4f53\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u8fbe\u5230\u7ec8\u8eab\u4fdd\u62a4\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5f85\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u660e\u5c3c\u82cf\u8fbe\u5927\u5b66\u4e13\u5bb6Susan Kline \u7684\u8868\u8ff0\uff0c\u4eba\u5bf9\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u957f\u671f\u7684\u514d\u75ab\u6027\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u5bfc\u81f4\u666e\u901a\u611f\u5192\u7684\u9f3b\u75c5\u6bd2\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u6297\u4f53\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u4f46\u53cd\u5e94\u4f1a\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u751f\u4e2d\u8fd8\u4f1a\u611f\u67d3\u597d\u51e0\u6b21\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span> <\/span><\/section>\n
3. \u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u76ee\u524d\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u75c5\u6b7b\u7387\uff0c\u4e0e\u53ca\u65f6\u6709\u6548\u7684\u9694\u79bb\u63aa\u65bd\u548c\u79ef\u6781\u6551\u6cbb\u662f\u5206\u4e0d\u5f00\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e5f\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u904f\u5236\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u8005 1 \u6708 31 \u65e5\u5728\u300a\u67f3\u53f6\u5200\u300b\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u4f20\u64ad\u9884\u6d4b\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u591a\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u5df2\u7ecf\u5448\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u6982\u6ede\u540e\u4e8e\u6b66\u6c49\u66b4\u53d1\u7684\u5927\u7ea6 1\uff5e2 \u5468\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u6625\u8fd0\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6d41\u52a8\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u6b66\u6c49\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u4f8b\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u6563\u5e03\u5230\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u591a\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u57ce\u5e02\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\"\u5f7b\u5e95\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u50cf\u6d41\u611f\u4e00\u6837\u53cd\u590d\u7206\u53d1\uff1f\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\"<\/section>\n
\u6625\u8fd0\u671f\u95f4\u4ece\u6b66\u6c49\u51fa\u53d1\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4ea4\u901a\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe\u5206\u5e03\u56fe<\/span><\/section>\n
\u56fe\u6e90\uff1athe Lancet <\/em>\u8bba\u6587\u622a\u56fe<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n
\u8bba\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u76ee\u524d\u6ca1\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u663e\u793a\u75c5\u6bd2\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u529b\u5ea6\u7684\u5730\u57df\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u7acb\u5373\u5728\u6240\u6709\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u5730\u533a\u91c7\u53d6\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u4e25\u5389\u7684\u9650\u5236\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5c31\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u63a7\u5236\u4f4f\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u76ee\u524d\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u4e3a\u6709\u6548\u5e94\u5bf9\u75ab\u60c5\uff0c\u6b66\u6c49\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u5c01\u57ce\u7b49\u591a\u79cd\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c2 \u6708 8 \u65e5\u81f3 9 \u65e5\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u5404\u7701\u5e02\u5171\u5411\u6b66\u6c49\u589e\u6d3e 34 \u652f\u533b\u7597\u961f\u9a70\u63f4\u6b66\u6c49\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6e56\u5317\u5df2\u7531\u5c45\u5bb6\u9694\u79bb\u8f6c\u5411\u96c6\u4e2d\u9694\u79bb\uff0c\u5efa\u8bbe\u591a\u5bb6\u65b9\u8231\u533b\u9662\u6536\u6cbb\u8f7b\u75c7\u60a3\u8005\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8bbe\u7f6e\u591a\u4e2a\u9694\u79bb\u70b9\u7528\u4e8e\u9694\u79bb\u7591\u4f3c\u548c\u5bc6\u5207\u63a5\u89e6\u8005\u3002\u5168\u56fd\u5176\u4ed6\u5404\u7701\u5e02\u4e5f\u90fd\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u9694\u79bb\u9632\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u75ab\u82d7\u548c\u6cbb\u7597\u836f\u7269<\/span>\u4e5f\u5728\u6293\u7d27\u7814\u53d1<\/span>\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\u65e0\u8bba\u8f6c\u5f52\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u653e\u677e\u8b66\u60d5<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u75c5\u6bd2\u5b66\u4e13\u5bb6\u95fb\u7389\u6885\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u51fa\u73b0\u62d0\u70b9\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u65b0\u53d1\u7591\u4f3c\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u786e\u8bca\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/span>\u4ece\u73b0\u6709\u60c5\u51b5\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u4ecd\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5c1a\u672a\u5230\u8fbe\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u62d0\u70b9\uff0c\u4e14\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u6bd4 SARS \u548c MERS \u66f4\u52a0\u300c\u72e1\u733e\u300d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f20\u64ad\u6307\u6570\uff08R0\uff09\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e2a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u9884\u671f\u4f20\u64ad\u7ed9\u65b0\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u91cf\uff0cR0 \u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u5219\u8868\u793a\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u4f20\u67d3\u529b\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684 R0 \u503c\u5c1a\u672a\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u6570\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u5c06\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684 R0 \u503c\u9501\u5b9a\u5728 2.0\uff5e4.0 \u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
1 \u6708 24 \u65e5\u300a\u67f3\u53f6\u5200\u300b\u53d1\u6587 A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster<\/em> \u4f30\u8ba1\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2 R0 \u503c\u4e3a 3.6\uff5e4.0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\"\u5f7b\u5e95\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u50cf\u6d41\u611f\u4e00\u6837\u53cd\u590d\u7206\u53d1\uff1f\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\"<\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
2 \u6708 10 \u65e5\uff0c\u9884\u5370\u672c\u8bba\u6587\u5e73\u53f0 medRxiv<\/em> \u53d1\u8868\u7814\u7a76 Epidemiological and clinical features of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China <\/em>\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2 R0 \u503c\u4e3a 3.77\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\"\u5f7b\u5e95\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u50cf\u6d41\u611f\u4e00\u6837\u53cd\u590d\u7206\u53d1\uff1f\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\"<\/section>\n
\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a<\/span>medRxiv <\/span><\/em>\u622a\u56fe<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
1 \u6708 31 \u65e5\uff0c\u300a\u67f3\u53f6\u5200\u300b\u53d1\u6587 Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study <\/em>\u4f30\u8ba1\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2 R0 \u503c\u4e3a 2.68\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/span><\/section>\n
\"\u5f7b\u5e95\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u50cf\u6d41\u611f\u4e00\u6837\u53cd\u590d\u7206\u53d1\uff1f\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\"<\/section>\n
 <\/span>
<\/section>\n
\u968f\u7740\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6df1\u5165\uff0c\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684 R0 \u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u5448\u73b0\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u4ece\u76ee\u524d\u8d8b\u52bf\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u75c5\u6b7b\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e SARS \u548c MERS\uff0c\u4f46\u4f20\u67d3\u529b\u9ad8\u4e8e MERS\uff08R0\uff1c1\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
\n
\"\u5f7b\u5e95\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u50cf\u6d41\u611f\u4e00\u6837\u53cd\u590d\u7206\u53d1\uff1f\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\"<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\n
\u51e0\u5927\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u6307\u6570 R0 \u6bd4\u8f83<\/span><\/section>\n
\uff08\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a<\/span>\u534e\u5c71\u611f\u67d3\uff09<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
 <\/span><\/section>\n
\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u75c5\u6bd2\u8d77\u75c5\u7684\u9690\u533f\u6027\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u6f5c\u4f0f\u671f\u3001\u8f7b\u75c7\u53ca\u65e0\u75c7\u72b6\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u5bb6\u5ead\u805a\u96c6\u6027\u75c5\u4f8b\u7684\u9ad8\u53d1\uff0c\u90fd\u4e3a\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u548c\u9632\u63a7\u5e26\u6765\u96be\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n

<\/section>\n
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\u53c2\u8003\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/span><\/section>\n
1.http:\/\/www.bjnews.com.cn\/news\/2020\/02\/13\/688789.html<\/span><\/section>\n
2.https:\/\/www.statnews.com\/2020\/02\/04\/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained\/<\/span><\/section>\n
3.http:\/\/www.pumc.edu.cn\/blog\/19906\/<\/span><\/section>\n
4.http:\/\/www.bjnews.com.cn\/feature\/2020\/02\/12\/688161.html<\/span><\/section>\n
5.Wu J T, Leung K, Leung G M. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study[J]. The Lancet, 2020.<\/span><\/section>\n
6.https:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/367\/6478\/610<\/span><\/section>\n
7.Chan J F W, Yuan S, Kok K H, et al. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster[J]. The Lancet, 2020.<\/span><\/section>\n
8.\u539f\u7406-https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/m6dEPXBCbP2SoLXblmyf8g<\/span><\/section>\n
9. https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/SpTKOU-KRHncgvRmj5aoUQ<\/span><\/section>\n
10.https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/pfNiDLB05JdQLlMESXYIPQ<\/span><\/section>\n

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